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Profits of Chaos

Austrian Economics and Investing. With Professor Peter St Onge. If you haven’t yet, sign up for free updates here.

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Nara-Dreamland-abandoned-2Okay, the picture is Japan, but it’s what I imagine a roller-coaster in Liberia probably looks like right about now.

And what a roller-coaster it’s been for markets. After months of zombie-marching to new highs, in the past month the main US indices are down about 7%, while Europe is down even harder. If you’re long the market, it’s been painful. If you’re short, you’re probalby in Aruba right now trying not to spill your Mai Tai.

What’s going on? Is it the end of the world? Will we have to live in the car? Will Jimmy get his braces?

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My latest at Mises Institute:6917

A panel discussion at the 2014 Mises University addressed the question of whether Austrian economics can improve financial predictions. [click to continue…]

Is Keynes an Economist?

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J.M.Keynes-seatedWell, if I garden on the weekends, am I a gardener? In this sense John Maynard Keynes would indeed be an economist.

On the other hand, in science we might expect some “weeding-out” process analogous to natural selection that kills off bad ideas and promotes good ideas. Did Keynes go through this process? Or did his prominence come through some other channel? The historical record is pretty clear — Keynes is a naked emperor crowned by bureaucrats.

Keynes’ resume is fairly sordid for an alleged economist: after bouncing around India aimlessly, [click to continue…]

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berne-goldI spent last week at Doug Casey’s annual conference. It was in San Antonio, which is just bordering on hot this time of year. The hotel had a lazy river and a hot-water waterfall, and one of those big surf-boarding rides, which seemed kind of odd for San Antonio.

Doug is a libertarian, he’s friendly to Austrian economics, and lives in a kind of experimental community in remote Argentina. [click to continue…]

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bear-vs-bullToday’s post is a bit more technical than usual, because I’ll be at Doug Casey’s Summit next week and want to get some thoughts out there.

One of the biggest questions for a 2014 asset manager is what’s next for bonds. The answer is both easy and hard: the easy part is that bond prices depend on inflation, since the Fed is obsessed with inflation and happens to controls bond prices.

The harder question is what’s next for inflation? There are two stages here. First stage is what comes out of the economy itself, “in the wild” so to speak. The second stage is how the Fed reacts.

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